Shohei Ohtani free agency updates: Latest rumors, news, landing spots as MLB's top player considers options

Experts make their Ohtani predictions

Where will Ohtani sign? What will his contract look like? That's what everyone in baseball is asking. So we decided to ask our CBS Sports MLB writing staff. Our four writers made their picks and nearly came to a consensus about where Ohtani will land this winter and how big his contract will be.

Shohei Ohtani predictions: Experts project where MLB's top player will sign, what kind of contract he'll get

Mike Axisa

We know the favorites

All signs have pointed to the Dodgers as the lucky winners of the Ohtani sweepstakes. If not, the Mets and Steve Cohen's unlimited bank account, or maybe the Yankees. How about the Blue Jays?

MLB rumors: A surprise contender for Shohei Ohtani, Phillies eye new ace, Mets, Yankees talk Manuel Margot

Matt Snyder

Think Ohtani's free agency has been too quiet?

That's just how he and his agent reportedly want it. 

Shohei Ohtani free agency rumors: Team meetings to be kept secret in bidding war for two-way superstar

R.J. Anderson

Ohtani rejects qualifying offer

2023 MLB qualifying offer: All seven free agents reject QO, including Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Nola

Mike Axisa

In perhaps the least surprising move of the offseason, Shohei Ohtani rejected the Angels' $20.325M one-year Qualifying Offer on Tuesday. This was simply a free agency formality. All this means is that if Ohtani signs with another team this winter, the Angels will get draft pick compensation. Mike Axisa explains why it would be a very small consolation prize.

Ohtani contract prediction

The $500 million mark seems to be the bar everyone is watching when it comes to Shohei Ohtani's free agency. That number would shatter the currently held MLB record (Mike Trout's $426.5M contract). Ohtani can likely get to $500 million this winter unless he prefers a shorter deal with a higher annual average value (more on that below. But how long would a deal have to be to get to $500M? CBS Sports' R.J. Anderson says just 10 years. 

Anderson predicted the contracts for every one of the top 10 free agents on the market this week. Ohtani's prediction: 10 years, $500 million. The $50M average annual value would also rewrite the contract record books. Check out all the predictions below.

MLB free agency predictions: Projecting contracts for top 10 players with Shohei Ohtani hitting $500M mark

R.J. Anderson

What if Ohtani doesn't take a 10-year, $500 million offer?

All along, we've expected Ohtani to max out on years and dollars, probably with a heap of opt outs and incentives. But how will his elbow surgery affect that? Could he take an enormous one-year deal to cover 2024, when he won't be on the mound, then start fresh (and healthy!) next offseason?

Shohei Ohtani rumors: Two-way ace could take shorter, high AAV deal, hit free agency again after elbow rehab

Dayn Perry

Ohtani prioritizing contenders over geography?

It is no secret Ohtani wants to join a contending team -- "It sucks to lose," he said in July -- and that might be his top priority, even over geography. It is believed Ohtani prefers the West Coast. Several East Coast teams figure to at least reach out to Ohtani this offseason, including the Blue Jays, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, and Yankees.

MLB rumors: Shohei Ohtani not as concerned with geography during free agency, Aaron Nola garnering interest

Mike Axisa

What about the non-favorites?

Most expect Ohtani to sign with the Dodgers, a perfect match of location, money and need for both parties. But what if that doesn't come to fruition? The Rangers and Cubs are getting a lot of attention these days, and the Giants desperately need star power. Click here for more.

MLB rumors: Mets could pivot to Yoshinobu Yamamoto if Shohei Ohtani off the table, Cubs eye Rhys Hoskins

Matt Snyder

Fun fits for Ohtani

Every team in baseball could use Shohei Ohtani. He's a middle-of-the-order slugger and an ace-level pitcher when healthy. He is a fit with every single team like no free agent before him. But what are the most fun fits? CBS Sports' Matt Snyder broke those down with six hopefuls.

Shohei Ohtani free agency: What two-way superstar can offer contending teams, plus six out-of-the-box hopefuls

Matt Snyder

Bold predictions: Ohtani to the ...

... Dodgers. OK so maybe that's not too bold, but CBS Sports' Mike Axisa listed Ohtani's potential new home as one of his 10 bold predictions for the MLB offseason. Axisa predicts Ohtani will get a 13-year deal worth a nice, even, $500 million. That figure would shatter current MLB records for the most guaranteed money ever. Check out all of his bold predictions below.

10 bold predictions for MLB offseason: Juan Soto to New York, Shohei Ohtani's new home, blockbuster deals

Mike Axisa

Ohtani No. 1 on top-50 list

No surprise here, but Shohei Ohtani is the No. 1 player on CBS Sports' list of the top 50 free agents this winter. Ohtani might turn out to be the most valuable player in baseball history, and his free agent contract is likely to reflect that. R.J. Anderson explains exactly why Ohtani is No. 1, plus he takes a look at 49 other players to watch this winter.

MLB free agency: Ranking top 50 players with Aaron Nola, Cody Bellinger in top five as market officially opens

R.J. Anderson

Ohtani sweepstakes could last a while

The most coveted member of the 2023-24 free agent class, Ohtani won't pitch next season as he recovers from an elbow procedure, but he will continue his work as one of the top power hitters in all of baseball. The two-way star figures to fetch the largest contract in MLB history, but it's not one that's likely to come together right away. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Ohtani's agent, Nez Balelo, "is in no rush, so look for the Ohtani sweepstakes to be going full throttle in December."

MLB rumors: Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes could last a while, Justin Turner to be pursued by NL champs

Dayn Perry

Ohani's top landing spots

The Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Cubs, Rangers, Angels (with whom Ohtani spent the first six years of his career) and others will be in pursuit of baseball's best player throughout the winter. We recently took a look at the best options for Ohtani as he weighs his decision.

Shohei Ohtani free agency: Ranking all 30 possible landing spots as Rangers join Dodgers, Mets in top five

Mike Axisa

Complicating factor

Ohtani, 29, has demonstrated that he's a top-tier performer as both a hitter and pitcher. Through six big-league seasons, he's compiled career marks that include a 148 OPS+ and a 142 ERA+. Alas, his free agency is not without some complications. He underwent elbow surgery in September that will prevent him from pitching again until the 2025 season. That seems unlikely to dampen Ohtani's market too much, but it is something worth keeping in mind as the process unfolds.