The Miami Dolphins will try to continue their dominance of struggling teams when they visit the New York Jets for an NFL Black Friday matchup. The Dolphins (7-3) haven't beaten a team with a winning record since Week 3 of the 2022 season, but are 12-5 against losing teams since then. The Jets (4-6) come in on a downward trend and with a new quarterback, as Tim Boyle will replace Zach Wilson. Miami beat the Raiders 20-13 last week, while New York dropped its third straight, 32-6 to the Bills last Sunday.
Kickoff at New York's MetLife Stadium is set for 3 p.m. ET. The latest Dolphins vs. Jets odds list the Dolphins as 9.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 40.5. Before you make any Jets vs. Dolphins Black Friday NFL picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Dolphins vs. Jets 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Jets vs. Dolphins:
- Dolphins vs. Jets spread: Miami -9.5
- Dolphins vs. Jets over/under: 40.5 points
- Dolphins vs. Jets money line: Miami -484, New York +363
- MIA: Dolphins are 6-7-1 ATS on the road under coach Mike McDaniel (since 2022)
- NYJ: Jets are 10-12 ATS as the home team under Robert Salah (since 2021)
- Dolphins vs. Jets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Dolphins can cover
Miami's struggles against good teams have been an issue, but the Jets are in disarray. They have allowed 40 sacks and the offense puts up just 270 yards and 15 points per game, both 30th in the NFL. Their only hope could be the run game, but the Dolphins allow 3.8 yards per carry (seventh in NFL). They also have 31 sacks and intercepted three passes last week. Miami's defense ranks in the top 15 in the league in both passing and rushing yards allowed.
The Dolphins are 6-4 against the spread and 2-1 ATS in the division. They score the most points in the NFL (30.5 per game) and are No. 1 in passing offense (291) and No. 2 in rushing (143). Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 2,934 yards (third in NFL), and receiver Tyreek Hill has been at the top of his game. In his second season in Miami, he has more receiving yards through 10 games (1,222) than any player in the Super Bowl era and has nine touchdowns. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why the Jets can cover
New York is 4-4 ATS as an underdog and 3-2 ATS at home. While Miami has had problems with winning teams, the Jets have beaten the Bills and handed the Eagles their only loss so far. The offense has been having trouble, but running back Breece Hall (544 yards) has home-run ability and the Jets average 4.6 yards per carry, fourth-best in the NFL. Hall also has 296 receiving yards, wide receiver Garrett Wilson has 651 yards and tight end Tyler Conklin has 35 catches.
The Jets' strength is a defense that is fourth in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.9) and fifth against the pass (178.5 yards per game). New York has 16 takeaways, with Jordan Whitehead nabbing four of the team's 10 interceptions. Tagovailoa has thrown eight interceptions. Cornerback Sauce Gardner can keep almost any receiver in the NFL quiet, and the Jets will do all they can to keep Hill in check. Jets opponents are averaging 20.4 points (12th in NFL). See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Dolphins vs. Jets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under the total, projecting 40 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine.
So who wins the NFL Black Friday Dolphins vs. Jets matchup, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jets vs. Dolphins spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
