I'm inclined to think Dell might be a sell-high candidate right now. I haven't officially hit him with that label in the trade targets section of today's newsletter, but I strongly considered it. It's not a knock on Dell, who looks like an awesome player and is consistently earning a ton of targets despite a sky-high 14.1 average depth of target, a combination that makes his production pretty easy to buy into. I don't think we're seeing a fluke here, or anything.

I just think he might be running hot right now, just like Nacua was earlier in the season. Wide receivers tend to be inherently volatile, and that is especially true for guys who do most of their work down the field. Dell has put together three huge games in a row, and I think there might be some recency bias here in how Dell is likely viewed by most fantasy players – where his most recent games are indicative of "growth," rather than what they might be, which is a hot streak. 

I didn't ultimately opt to officially call Dell a sell-high candidate just because I would truly need to be blown away to consider moving him right now. I would legitimately need a top-12 WR type of return for him. But I do think we're probably seeing the best stretch of Dell's season, and if he was more like a mid-range WR2 the rest of the way, like Nacua has been for the past month and a half or so, I wouldn't be surprised. That's a very good outcome, obviously, and if he had a top-five outcome the rest of the way, I wouldn't be too surprised, either. 

Call me a fence-straddler, if you must; I can take that criticism. But the point is, if you have Dell on your team, you're one of the lucky ones, and you shouldn't be actively looking to move him. 

As always, before you make any trades, make sure you consult Dave Richard's trade values chart. Here are some buys and sells to help get the conversation started: 

Three to buy low

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

This is a tough one, because, as you saw Monday night, Mahomes is clearly playing a lot better than his numbers. And his numbers are still pretty dang good – he's QB6 in points per game right now, and finished with 20.9 points Monday despite numerous key drops, including on what would have been a long, game-winning touchdown. Mahomes remains the best passer in the league, and he's running more effectively than ever, adding 2-4 points per game with his legs consistently, but he's been losing even more on drops – he's had 19 dropped passes this season, the third-most in the NFL, and he's lost 190 air yards on those passes, the most in the NFL (not counting whatever YAC might have come on those passes, let alone touchdowns). 

There is still absolutely elite upside here if he can get even a little bit of help from his receivers. The problem is, well, he's stuck with this receiving corps, so we shouldn't assume it'll just get better overnight. Still, with even just normal bad luck on drops, Mahomes should be a better Fantasy option than he has been, and with so many high-profile drops on Monday night, I'm going to bet there's more angst around Mahomes than normal right now. This could be your chance to take advantage. 

James Conner, RB, Cardinals

Conner's workload has been solid, but unspectacular since his return from IR, with 30 carries and three targets over the past two games. But he's continued to run the ball well and is playing over 60% of the snaps in each game, with the biggest issue so far a lack of scoring opportunities. The Cardinals have never been shy about using Conner near the goal line, and with Kyler Murray playing well, those opportunities should be there moving forward. I'd like to see Conner used more in the passing game, but utilizing him in this fashion doesn't seem to be an integral part of this version of the offense. He has 13 targets in seven games this season, and just eight since Week 1 – but I still think better days are ahead, and Conner remains a solid RB2 for me. 

Chris Olave, WR, Saints

Here's the tough thing about Olave: Since the start of the 2022 season, only Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams have more targets on passes of at least 20 air yards than Olave's 54. Additionally, only one player has a catch rate on those targets lower than Olave's 20.4% mark. The role is there for Olave to be an absolute superstar, but are his struggles catching the deep ball a result of a limitation in Olave's game, the poor QB play he has been saddled with, or some combination of those two factors and some bad luck? 

I'm enough of a fan of Olave's skill set to bet that he can get this figured out, and I'm hopeful that Jameis Winston starting in Week 12 (an if with Derek Carr still in the concussion protocol) could help him get going. Remember, Olave had just one catch midway through the third quarter with Carr in Week 10, and then had five for 79 yards and a touchdown the rest of the way with Winston. The Saints aren't just going to bench Carr, I would guess, but Olave is still a solid bet to turn more of his potential into production in the second half of the season. 

One to buy high

Justin Fields, QB, Bears

Justin Fields torched the Lions on the ground last season, and the Bears smartly recognized that would need to be a key last week and had him run 14 designed QB runs, the highest mark for a game in his career. We probably won't see comparable numbers from him moving forward, but I do think it's a good sign that they recognized a clear game plan strength and leaned into it, something the Bears haven't often done with Fields enough. He's made the leap as a passer we hoped for when they Bears added DJ Moore this offseason, and I think Week 11 was a sign that he's still very much capable of going on a dominant run as a runner. Fields has a chance to be the QB1 moving forward, and he's worth chasing if you can stomach the Week 14 bye. The playoff schedule is pretty favorable once you get past Week 15 against the Browns (and I'll still rank him as a QB1 for that one, too).

Three to sell high

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks

Charbonnet is finally going to get his shot to start, seemingly, with Kenneth Walker dealing with an oblique injury, and the timing really could not be worse. Charbonnet's first start will come against the 49ers if Walker isn't able to return in time for Thursday, and then if Walker has to miss time beyond that, the schedule features the Cowboys and the road in Week 13, the 49ers on the road in Week 14, and then the Eagles in Week 15. If Walker is out, I'm going to rank Charbonnet as a top-24 RB, but only just barely, and there's a chance he ends up starting just the one game and providing very little in a tough matchup. I'm trying to trade Charbonnet to any RB-needy teams to see if I can get someone like Conner or Raheem Mostert who have been a little disappointing of late. You could even try for Derrick Henry, whose situation is really bad, but who does have a couple of good matchups coming up he can take advantage of. 

Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars

The Jaguars got a bit more creative with how they used Calvin Ridley in Week 11, and I'd love to bet that it's going to hold true moving forward. Ridley, who has lined up almost exclusively on the outside of the formation for the Jaguars prior to Week 11, was moved around the formation Sunday, with Underdog Fantasy's Josh Norris noting his very different usage in a Twitter thread Sunday. Maybe the Jaguars were willing to shift Ridley around more with Zay Jones, their other primary boundary receiver, back from injury, but Jones wasn't on the field for all of Ridley's targets, so I'm not sure that necessarily explains it. 

It might represent a change in the Jaguars philosophy in a season that has been defined by how disappointing the passing game has been as much as anything else. Or, maybe it was just a one-time thing based on something they saw in the matchup. I'd love for Ridley to go on a run, but given how hit or miss he's been this season, I'm operating under the assumption that it's a fluke until I see more evidence. That means I am trying to move Ridley coming off the best game of the season. 

Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos

There are a few guys I've just banged my head against the wall with all season, and Sutton might be the biggest. He's now scored a touchdown in five straight games and eight of 10 overall, despite averaging 49.9 yards per game, the second lowest mark of his career. Sutton has just dominated in the red zone this season, while otherwise being about as mediocre as always. And, while Sutton has always profiled as a red zone threat, his career touchdown rate coming into the season was just 3.3%; it sits at 12.9% this season. I'll always defer to the larger sample size when projecting, and Sutton's 65-game sample outweighs the more recent 10-game one. Without the touchdowns, he's barely Fantasy relevant, and I just can't expect this kind of pace to sustain moving forward. 

One to sell low

Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders

In two wins against totally hapless offenses, Jacobs got huge volume in the running game in Weeks 9 and 10, which papered over a troubling trend that really became hard to ignore with the Raiders chasing points in Week 11: His passing game role has evaporated. Jacobs' route participation rate against Miami was down to 53%, and he has just three targets in three games since Josh McDaniels' firing. The McDaniels offense has always heavily featured running backs in the passing game, especially in the early downs, which benefited Jacobs, who hasn't really played many third downs over the past few seasons. 

However, with McDaniels out of the picture, that approach has changed, and it's left Jacobs as an early-down runner who needs volume and touchdown chances to be Fantasy relevant. Under McDaniels, Jacobs was a top-five RB even in a bad offense; without McDaniels, he looks more like a touchdown-dependent RB2. I'm trying to move him before the market catches up.